COP30 in Belém marked a pivotal moment in global climate governance, elevating adaptation and resilience to central priorities while exposing the persistent limits of collective ambition. For African countries—among the most exposed to climate impacts yet still facing structural constraints in governance, capacity, and financing—the post-COP30 phase opens a decisive chapter: the transition from global commitments to concrete, territorialized, and inclusive transformations. Between targeted progress and lingering blind spots, this article examines the structural challenges of the post-COP30 era for Africa and the strategic levers needed to turn resilience into a driver of sustainable development.
COP30: What Has Really Changed for Africa
Held from 10 to 22 November 2025 in Belém, at the heart of the Amazon, COP30 was framed as the “COP of implementation,” marking ten years since the Paris Agreement and the entry into a critical phase of its execution. Adaptation and resilience were established as central pillars of global climate action, with increased attention to the most vulnerable countries, particularly in Africa.
Notable outcomes include:
- the adoption of 59 indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (Belém Adaptation Indicators), providing a structured framework to track adaptation efforts;
- a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, despite uncertainties regarding implementation modalities;
- the creation of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), with an announced ambition of USD 127 billion for the protection of tropical forests;
- progress on the implementation of Article 6 carbon market mechanisms, including the closure of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2026 and the transfer of funds to the Article 6.4 mechanism;
- progress on just transition, with the establishment of a mechanism to strengthen international cooperation.
However, COP30 also revealed major shortcomings: the absence of consensus on the phasedown of fossil fuels, weak concrete financial commitments, persistent North–South divisions, and stalemates in discussions related to the Global Stocktake.
Four Structural Post-COP30 Challenges for African Countries
1. Translating Global Commitments into Operational Action
The adoption of the Belém indicators is a major step forward, but translating them into public policies, investments, and territorial actions remains a central challenge for African countries. The multiplicity of international frameworks (climate, biodiversity, desertification, disaster risk reduction) complicates the alignment of national and local strategies, often straining limited institutional capacities.
Without binding mechanisms, dedicated resources, and robust monitoring systems, there is a real risk that these indicators will remain declaratory, limiting their impact on the actual resilience of territories and populations.
2. Governance and Capacity: The Foundation of Resilience
Climate resilience relies primarily on strong, coordinated, and operational institutions. Yet in many African countries, climate governance remains fragmented, with unclear institutional mandates, insufficient intersectoral coordination, and weak articulation between national and local levels.
These weaknesses hinder planning, slow policy implementation, and reduce the effectiveness of mobilized funding. Sustainable capacity building—in planning, bankable project development, access to finance, and monitoring and evaluation—thus emerges as a critical strategic investment.
- Territorialization and Inclusion: Conditions for Real Impact
Climate impacts are first felt at the territorial level: cities, rural areas, watersheds, and fragile ecosystems. Yet climate action is often designed centrally, with limited consideration of territorial dynamics and differentiated vulnerabilities.
Moreover, the most exposed populations—women, youth, older persons, and persons with disabilities—remain insufficiently integrated into decision-making and implementation processes, despite their key role in local resilience strategies. Territorialization and inclusion must therefore become central pillars of African climate governance.
- Climate Finance: A Persistent Gap Between Ambition and Reality
According to the Climate Policy Initiative, Africa’s annual climate finance needs are estimated at USD 277 billion, compared to approximately USD 30 billion mobilized each year. This gap reflects both difficulties in accessing climate finance and limited absorption capacities, particularly at the local level.
Despite the commitment to triple adaptation finance, the lack of clear baselines, precise timelines, and accountability mechanisms fuels concerns about the credibility and predictability of financial flows to Africa.
What the Post-COP30 Era Implies for African Decision-Makers
- Move from strategy to action by translating climate commitments into institutional reforms and concrete territorial projects
- Strengthen access to and absorption capacity for climate finance, particularly for local authorities
- Invest sustainably in human and institutional capacities
- Develop integrated data systems, disaggregated by sex, to support evidence-based planning
- Make territories and inclusion central levers of adaptation
- Promote a collective “Mutirão”-type effort based on cooperation and solidarity
Why Governance Has Become a Prerequisite for Access to Climate Finance?
In a context of increasingly scarce climate resources, governance has become a central credibility criterion for donors and international funds. Coordinated institutions, reliable information systems, and a demonstrated ability to operationalize international frameworks now condition both access to finance and its effectiveness.
2026–2030 Outlook: A Strategic Window for Africa
The announced hosting of COP32 in 2027 in Addis Ababa, with a focus on adaptation, offers a strategic opportunity to strengthen Africa’s leadership on the global climate agenda. However, COP30 also highlighted the persistent weakness of Africa’s collective negotiating capacity, particularly on issues related to fossil fuels, critical minerals, and transition value chains.
In parallel, the Movement toward a roadmap for the phasedown of fossil fuels, led by Colombia and joined by 88 countries—including several African states—opens an important window of opportunity. This framework will provide a space for dialogue and negotiation in April 2026, enabling renewed debate on the transition away from fossil fuels.
Without a strategic strengthening of negotiation capacities and improved coordination among African countries, however, the continent risks remaining a rule-taker rather than a co-architect of global climate decisions.
The Role of Mollitia Consulting
In this post-COP30 phase, specialized firms such as Mollitia Consulting play a key role in supporting African states and local authorities through:
- aligning national and local strategies with new COP30 frameworks;
- designing credible and bankable adaptation projects;
- mobilizing and securing climate finance;
- strengthening capacities in resilient planning, monitoring and evaluation, and multi-stakeholder partnerships.
Conclusion
The 2026–2030 period will be decisive for Africa. Climate resilience must move beyond political commitments to become an operational lever for sustainable development, innovation, and value creation. The credibility of African climate action will rest on the collective ability to articulate governance, finance, territorialization, and inclusion—essential conditions for transforming the Belém commitments into lasting impacts on the ground.
We extend our sincere thanks to Perspective Climate Group for the valuable information and exchanges around COP30.
Transparency and Ethical Use of AI
This article was developed by Mollitia Consulting in line with principles of responsible and ethical use of artificial intelligence, consistent with practices adopted by UN agencies and international financial institutions. AI-based tools were used to support structuring, language refinement, and editorial clarity. All analysis, interpretations, and conclusions are the sole responsibility of Mollitia Consulting.